(4.6.2004)

First article of a series on the potential crash of the euro

It could be seen as a futile exercise to discuss the wreckage of the euro since the probability of this occurring is nil or almost nil. The arguments, however, put forward by those who consider the crash of the euro are worthwhile considering and a shocking title may be needed to draw decision-makers and everyday citizens out of their torpor precisely to avoid the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) from disintegrating.

At a moment when the Growth and Stability Pact is threatened and that the adoption of the European Constitution remains uncertain, while reputable study groups show that a political union is indispensable for the survival of the euro, PROMEURO sees as worthwhile a review their arguments.

The story will be presented in a series of episodes :

1. A summary of the original arguments presented in 1996 by thte Center for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI) in London explaining why the euro will crash in 2003;

2. PROMEURO's e.mail in February 2004 to ask CSFI why their scenario did not materialise (so far) and CSFI's reply;

3. A summary of the article by a researcher of Morgan Stanley in 2004 showing why the euro is still at risk;

4. Nobel Price winner Robert MUNDELL's comments;

5. PROMEURO's position.

This list will be amended in the light of comments received from visitors of PROMEURO's website (about 6000 per month).

Please forward this first article to those who envisage to abstain from participating in the European elections or are indifferent as to the outcome of ongoing discussions regarding the European Constitution.

Jean-Jacques SCHUL President PROMEURO